In response, I found this paper:
"The Effects of the George W. Bush Presidency on Partisan Attitudes" by Gary C. Jacobson, Presidential Studies Quarterly, April 2009, p 170ff.
ABSTRACT
Evidence from the eight years of the George W. Bush administration confirms that the public standing of the president's party rises and falls in concert with popular evaluations of his job performance. Reactions to the president affect the favorability ratings of his party, party identification measured individually and at the aggregate level—particularly among younger voters—as well as the party's electoral performance. Bush's second term, which provoked the longest period of low and downward-trending approval ratings on record, thus inflicted considerable damage on the Republican Party's image, popular support, and electoral fortunes.
The GOP's state is a result of one and only one thing: George W. Bush's disastorous second term, and specifically Katrina and Iraq.
As the memories of those two events fade, and as Obama has his own troubles, the state of the GOP will improve.
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2 comments:
I'd add Schiavo to that list. It wasn't of much practical consequence to the country, but that scene of the federal government becoming actively involved in the personal affairs of one woman's family seemed to push away a certain kind of Republican supporter.
This might have been amplified juxtaposed with the seeming inaction during and immediately after Katrina.
I don't disagree, Doug.
The GOP has been in this state before, right after Nixon was driven from office. With the Carter election, Democrats had as much power as they have now.
And like now, they over-reached. A lot of unpopular legislation was enacted then (remember the 55 mph speed limit?).
I think Obama is taking some big risks now. They could all easily be as successful as Iraq was for Dubya. GM in particular is going to be the Amtrak of our generation, and drag down Democrat fortunes in the near future.
Also, Obama's response to the election in Iran has been... underwhelming. This is the next Orange/ Cedar style revolution happening as we speak, and he's giving a talk to the AMA. Unbelievable.
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